Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
