🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Profited $436K from Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Trading information shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in positions just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate. A small number of other traders also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Some lawmakers are growing concerned. A new rule introduced on recently seeks to ban government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. The industry were examined under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."